Monday, March 26, 2007

Proof Positive

Some while back I wrote a post about global warming, which garnered considerable derision from “Anonymous”.

But there really is no argument. It’s happening. I’m convinced. The proof is that my snow tires have been coming off earlier and earlier ever year. If it wasn’t getting warmer earlier in the spring, the summer tires would not be coming out so soon. This year they came out on March 25th! My grandpa used to say, as a general rule, that snow tires stay on till Easter. Well, that may have been reliable back in the 80’s—but these days, not so. Just look at the graph below. Hard data don't lie.

4 Comments:

Anonymous hilllady said...

I've taken to calling them "mud tires." And I expect to keep mine on for another month or two...

3/27/07, 9:45 AM  
Blogger C Neal said...

I can't believe you keep data on changing snow tires. Brilliant.

3/27/07, 12:37 PM  
Blogger C Neal said...

Unfortunately, a quick test can't reject the null hypothesis that the tire-changing date is getting earlier every year: your average tire-changing date has been inching up 1.27 days every year, but your standard deviation is pretty large at 2.37. The 90% confidence interval doesn't include zero, but the 95% confidence interval does. In other words, there's a greater than 5% chance that what looks like a trend here is just random variation.

Still, your data basically draws the same conclusion as thousands of scientists working for the UNIPCC, and I'll bet that next year's data point will improve the certainty.

3/27/07, 12:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

See posts dated 4-5 and 4-7-07. I rest my case.

6/14/07, 11:10 AM  

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